Max Schaub

No other form of violence targets a person's gender identity as much as sexual violence. What are the effects of victimization and exposure to sexual violence on individuals' understanding of their gender roles? How permanent are these effects? And how are they transmitted across generations? We explore these questions by examining one of the most extreme cases of known mass wartime sexual violence, following the Soviet occupation of Germany after World War II. Using original data collected from individuals spanning three postwar generations, we examine outcomes in the dimensions of household decision-making, militarized masculinity, and gendered political preferences and participation. Data collection will take place from July to September 2024, and we aim to collect 2,600 observations, 600 of which will be from members of the same family belonging to different generations. We will validate our findings using variation in the location of Soviet outposts in 1946, a matching design, and data on the prevalence of births nine months after the invasion.

Why do military forces target civilians in interstate wars? Modern technology has enabled civilians to transmit targeting information from behind the front lines, posing a threat to occupying forces. This threat is particularly acute in areas within range of long-range weapons. Drawing on theory developed in the context of civil war, we argue that armed actors use violence against civilians to suppress and deter information sharing. We test this theory using geospatial data from the Russian war against Ukraine, employing a variety of analytical strategies, including a treat-control and a staggered difference-in-differences design. Russian-occupied territories within range of Ukrainian artillery experienced seven times higher levels of civilian targeting, with the effect being particularly strong in areas with extensive mobile phone coverage. Our study extends the cooperation-control model from civil wars to interstate wars and highlights the unintended consequences of technological advancement and military aid on civilian populations.

Regime changes are common around the world. How do newly-established regimes interact with old regime elites? While pre-existing elites can directly challenge the new regime, their human and social capital may also bolster governance, indirectly reducing resistance against new authorities. We study foreign-imposed regime change in post-WWII Poland, tracing the impact of local Polish elites, including nobility, intellectuals, and army officers, on opposition to the Soviet-backed communist regime. We exploit plausibly random variation in Polish officers' wartime deployment and imprisonment for causal identification. While most officers in Nazi captivity survived, those in Soviet captivity largely perished. Leveraging differences in officers' wartime experiences, we find that municipalities with more surviving local elites experienced fewer Solidarność protests in the 1980s. Historical evidence suggests that surviving elites enhanced local economic development and public services, easing grievances against the communist regime. The economically beneficial effects of elite survival can be traced to this day.

Negative outgroup attitudes are often attributed to perceptions of competition or threat. We propose an alternative source: cultural scripts—interconnected networks of meanings that link particular group identities to negatively connoted phenomena. Evidence comes from three studies on the reactivation of the cultural script of traditional antisemitism in Germany. We begin our analysis by isolating the cultural script through automated analysis of a corpus of antisemitic texts. Next, using survey data collected during the Covid pandemic (n=17,800), we document an increase in antisemitism among Christian believers. This, we argue, is due to the pandemic activating the cultural script of traditional antisemitism, which links Judaism with the spread of disease. By means of an additional survey (n=2,000) and a concept association task, we demonstrate the presence of the cultural script in the minds of Christian believers. Two priming experiments explore how elements of the script can be triggered. Our work demonstrates the deep cultural roots of negative outgroup attitudes and the mechanisms behind their activation.

How do large-scale migration and resulting cultural diversity affect receiving societies? We argue that in contexts where individuals from different cultures regularly interact, exposure to cultural differences increases tolerance for deviant behavior, liberalizing social norms over time. We support this argument with evidence from Bavaria, which experienced a quasi-exogenous change in denominational diversity after WWII, following the arrival of 1.9 million German expellees from Central and Eastern Europe. Denominationally-blind allocation policy reduced the number of homogeneous settlements from 1,704 to nine as displaced Protestants were frequently assigned to predominantly Catholic communities and vice versa. Using original municipality-level data, we show that this sudden increase in denominational diversity reduced church attendance and membership, lowered support for socially conservative political parties, shored up support for progressive parties, and liberalized norms on gender, sexuality, and doctor-assisted suicide. These findings advance research on cultural change, intergroup contact, and consequences of migration.

The transfer of power via elections is an essential feature of democracies. We investigate the effect of such electoral turnovers on a crucial health measure, excess mortality. We argue that electoral turnovers can cause friction, which may delay the implementation of effective policy measures, especially in times of crisis. Our data come from France, where local elections were held at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Using OLS regression, matching, and a regression discontinuity design to analyze 5,000 electoral decisions, we demonstrate substantial negative side effects of electoral turnovers. Municipalities where the incumbent mayor was defeated by an opposition candidate experienced 7 percentage points higher excess mortality than municipalities where the incumbent retained their office. Information on mask-wearing mandates and hand-collected data on executive orders issued in municipalities with and without turnovers supports our theoretical claims. While crucial for the functioning of democracy, holding elections in times of emergency comes at a cost.

Introduction Armed conflict severely impacts health, with indirect deaths often exceeding direct casualties by a factor of 2 to 4, disproportionately affecting women and children. Although the magnitude of these effects is well-documented, the mechanisms driving them remain insufficiently understood. This study shifts the focus from supply-side factors, such as the destruction of infrastructure, to demand-side processes, particularly healthcare-seeking behavior, and from broader conflict exposure to individual-level violent victimization.
Methods Data come from a representative survey (N = 3,006) of caregivers of young children in northeastern Nigeria, a region heavily affected by armed insurgency. Unlike previous studies, our survey included dedicated measures of victimization, health-seeking outcomes, and mediating factors within a single instrument, enabling precise measurement and analysis. A matched case-control design (651 cases and 651 controls) was used to assess the impact of individual-level victimization on maternal and child healthcare-seeking behavior, and causal mediation analysis to identify the mechanisms linking victimization to health outcomes.
Results Victimization was widespread, with 21\% of respondents (n=651) having experienced a severe form of violence in the past 3 years. While maternal healthcare-seeking behavior appeared unaffected, victimization significantly reduced healthcare-seeking for child health. Children of victimized caregivers were markedly less likely to be fully immunized (OR: 0.43, p<0.001) and to receive care at government health facilities (OR: 0.23, p<0.001). This decline was primarily driven by increased distrust in the health system (PM: 0.42–0.70, p<0.05), stemming from negative experiences during the conflict, particularly health worker absenteeism and victimization by state security forces.
Conclusion Addressing fear and mistrust is key to improving healthcare-seeking in conflict-affected populations. Efforts should focus on providing security for government-run health facilities, reducing violence against civilians by state security forces, and restoring trust in healthcare and state institutions. Future research should explore effective strategies for achieving these objectives.