Max Schaub

What are the long-run consequences of wartime sexual violence for gender norms, and how do they propagate across generations? We address these questions with original survey data spanning three postwar generations in eastern Germany (n =2,548) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (n =2,059), two contexts marked by some of the most extensive episodes of mass wartime sexual violence in European history. Family histories of wartime sexual violence are widespread in our samples: 12.5% of German respondents and 6.7% of Bosnian respondents report a close family member was victimized. Across both contexts, exposure predicts more patriarchal gender attitudes within affected families, transmitted to children and grandchildren of victims. Mechanism analyses point to deteriorating mental health, domestic conflict, and demand for protective masculinity. Liberalizing responses—civic engagement, female solidarity—emerge in the exposed generation but do not transmit. Violence targeting gender identities can reshape the social norms governing families across generations.

Armed conflict causes large numbers of indirect deaths, especially among young children. Existing research has emphasized infrastructure destruction, displacement, infectious disease, and reduced access to healthcare, but these mechanisms are unlikely to account for the full mortality burden of war. I examine conflict-related air pollution as an additional, overlooked source of risk. Armed conflict generates substantial emissions, and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a leading environmental risk factor for child mortality. Estimating the mortality effect of this pathway is difficult because pollution exposure is intertwined with the many other ways in which conflict harms health. I address this problem by using wind direction as a natural experiment. The analysis combines data on armed conflict, satellite-derived pollution, and infant mortality across 305,755 grid cells in 113 low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017, complemented by individual birth records from 143 Demographic and Health Surveys. I find that a 5 µg/m³ increase in conflict-related PM_2.5—equivalent to the WHO annual guideline and a typical contrast between conflict-exposed and non-conflict cells—is associated with a 13.0% increase in infant mortality. Effects are several times larger where access to water and sanitation is poor. Birth-record analyses provide complementary evidence that upwind conflict exposure during gestation is associated with lower birthweight, especially in the third trimester. The findings identify conflict-related air pollution as a substantial but under-recognized contributor to infant mortality in low- and middle-income countries, with implications for humanitarian monitoring and infrastructure protection during conflict.

Can mass violence shape political behavior, even in domains unrelated to the original violence? We study this question in Armenia, where many citizens descend from genocide survivors and where the 2018 Velvet Revolution brought down the incumbent prime minister. We argue that family exposure to mass violence can generate intergenerational political vigilance: a learned orientation in which descendants of victimized families perceive politics as consequential and mobilize when they see threats to institutional order. Drawing on an original nationally representative survey (n = 2,637), we show that descendants of genocide victims were more likely to participate in the revolution and were especially overrepresented in its early stages. The association is robust to a front-line design exploiting variation in victimization during the genocide. Mechanism tests suggest that this pattern is driven by heightened political attention rather than substantive policy preferences. The findings identify political vigilance as a distinct long-run legacy of mass violence.

The book will explore a core dilemma of regime transitions: how should new regimes deal with the elites of the old order? These elites can pose a threat - undermining legitimacy, conspiring against new rulers, or mobilizing resistance. Yet they also hold valuable human and social capital that can strengthen state capacity and support regime survival. We will examine this tension through a unique natural experiment in post-World War II Poland, where the unexpected survival of traditional elites, driven by exogenous wartime shocks, shaped long-term opposition to authoritarian rule. While Nazi and Soviet forces systematically killed Poland's elites, one unlikely group largely survived: reserve officers captured by the Wehrmacht, spared as prisoners of war under the Geneva Conventions. Their capture was quasi-random, determined by battlefield contingencies rather than elite traits, offering rare causal leverage on elite survival. Drawing on original archival research on elite purges, untapped data on Polish elite biographies, and rich administrative and survey data from both communist and post-communist Poland, the book will trace the wartime fates and postwar roles of three elite groups - nobles, intellectuals, and officers - and show how surviving members of these groups shaped patterns of resistance, compliance, and development under communist rule.